- Explosive iPad sales. "We forecast that iPad sales would reach 20 million in 2019, the final year in our valuation exercise. iPad sales are already tracking over 12 million annually even before a full international rollout. Meanwhile, the device remains in chronic backlog."
- A shift in the Mac's trajectory. "Mac sales are tracking to 14 million units in calendar 2010, more than 50% higher than the number we previously forecast for the year."
- Rapid iPhone upgrades. "The recent iPhone 4 launch indicates that current iPhone owners are upgrading much faster than we previously assumed. This will increase total iPhone sales even as the installed base of iPhones grows roughly in line with our previous forecast."
"In our view," Wolf writes, "Apple's market capitalization has the potential to exceed our estimate. That's because Apple is a small fish in three very large ponds."
Elmer-DeWitt: "The three ponds: the worldwide PC market (Mac has 4+%), the smartphone market (iPhone has 14%) and the tablet computer market (for now the iPad has it all to itself)."
Wolf has raised his AAPL price target from $280 to $375(!!). Article with Wolf's valuation model here.
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