"Why the market shrugged off the Apple antitrust suit"

From Fortune's Philip Elmer-DeWitt:

…why didn't Apple's (AAPL) share price take a huge hit after news broke that the DOJ's antitrust division had sued the company and five publishers for alleged collusion in the e-book business? (See DOJ sues Apple over price-fixing scheme.)

Three reasons:

• It was hardly a surprise. Someone close to the case has been shopping details of the investigation to to Bloomberg, Reuters and the Wall Street Journal for weeks.
• There's still a chance for a settlement. Three of the publishers are reported to have already cut a deal. Apple and the other two -- despite their tough talk during negotiations -- could still climb on board.
• It's not Apple's main business. The $2.03 billion in "Other music related products and services" -- which includes revenue from the iTunes Store, the App Store, and iBookstore in addition to sales of iPod services and Apple branded and third-party iPod accessories -- represented 4.4% of the $46.333 billion in sales Apple reported last quarter.

http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2012/04/11/why-the-market-shrugged-off-the-apple-antitrust-suit/

"BlackBerry maker to cede most consumer markets"

From Yahoo! Finance:

TORONTO (AP) -- Struggling BlackBerry maker Research in Motion Ltd. said Thursday that it will cede most consumer markets after failing to compete with flashier touch-screen phones such as Apple's iPhone and models that run Google's Android software.

Instead, RIM said it will return to its roots and focus on business customers, many of whom prefer BlackBerrys for their security. RIM has had limited success trying to enter consumer markets in recent years, and RIM CEO Thorsten Heins said a turnaround required "substantial change."

"We plan to refocus on the enterprise business and capitalize on our leading position in this segment," Heins said. "We believe that BlackBerry cannot succeed if we tried to be everybody's darling and all things to all people. Therefore, we plan to build on our strength."

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/blackberry-maker-cede-most-consumer-212323407.html

Or, as Horace Dediu deadpans:

"RIM to give up."

http://www.asymco.com/2012/03/30/rim-to-give-up/

"Mobile Flash Fail: Weak Android Player Proves Jobs Right"

Avram Piltch of Laptop Magazine writes:

I’m the last person on earth who wanted to believe Steve Jobs when he told Walt Mossberg at D8 that “Flash has had its day.” I took it as nothing more than showmanship when Jobs shared his thoughts on Flash and wrote that “Flash is closed and proprietary, has major technical drawbacks, and doesn’t support touch based devices.” After spending time playing with Flash Player 10.1 on the new Droid 2, the first Android 2.2 phone to come with the player pre-installed, I’m sad to admit that Steve Jobs was right. Adobe’s offering seems like it’s too little, too late.

At LAPTOP, we’re still testing mobile Flash on a variety of handsets, but the early returns are a mixed bag, with some sites performing really well and other “unoptimized” videos and games causing restless thumb syndrome. When Flash 10.1 for Android is good, it’s great, but when it’s bad, it can make even the harshest Apple critic want to e-mail Steve Jobs an apology video playing in HTML 5.

Full story here.

File under "Least surprising news..."

From CNN — The BlackBerry Torch isn't setting the smartphone world ablaze.

"Research In Motion and AT&T sold no more than 150,000 of the devices over the weekend, according to estimates by RBC Capital Markets and Stifel Nicolaus analysts. By comparison, Apple's iPhone 4 sold 1.7 million units in its first weekend of sales."

More huge Apple numbers — 50 million iPads a year?

It took years before other manufacturers had credible competition for the iPhone. It's doubtful that the lag time for iPad competitors will be anywhere near as long, but the iPad's early success makes it an extremely formidable opponent.

Henry Blodget at Business Insider quotes hedge-fund manager Jeff Matthews on some amazing near-term numbers for the iPad:

We got to talking about Apple, and Jeff tossed out a startling prediction for Apple's iPad business:

Apple, Jeff said, will soon sell 50 million iPads a year. Given the amazing start the device has had, this forecast is hardly wild: 4 million iPads have been sold already, and ~12 million should be sold this year. So selling 50 million in a couple of years doesn't sound like a stretch, especially if the price comes down.

And to think- neither the iPhone nor iPad were even on the market barely three years ago...

Needham's big Apple numbers…

Fortune's Philip Elmer-DeWitt outlines some thoughts on Apple's amazing potential- from Needham analyst Charlie Wolf. The three things that surprised Wolf the most:

• Explosive iPad sales. "We forecast that iPad sales would reach 20 million in 2019, the final year in our valuation exercise. iPad sales are already tracking over 12 million annually even before a full international rollout. Meanwhile, the device remains in chronic backlog."
• A shift in the Mac's trajectory. "Mac sales are tracking to 14 million units in calendar 2010, more than 50% higher than the number we previously forecast for the year."
• Rapid iPhone upgrades. "The recent iPhone 4 launch indicates that current iPhone owners are upgrading much faster than we previously assumed. This will increase total iPhone sales even as the installed base of iPhones grows roughly in line with our previous forecast."

"In our view," Wolf writes, "Apple's market capitalization has the potential to exceed our estimate. That's because Apple is a small fish in three very large ponds."

Elmer-DeWitt: "The three ponds: the worldwide PC market (Mac has 4+%), the smartphone market (iPhone has 14%) and the tablet computer market (for now the iPad has it all to itself)."

Wolf has raised his AAPL price target from $280 to $375(!!). Article with Wolf's valuation model here.

Apple Q3 results blow past expectations- "Antennagate" over…

Pretty simple:

(Reuters) - Apple Inc (AAPL.O) reported results that blew past Wall Street's expectations, boosted by robust sales of Mac computers, sending its shares 3 percent higher.

Apple's stellar financial performance in the June quarter helped ease investor fears, and may silence a chorus of critics who have been hammering the company over its handling of the iPhone 4 "Antennagate" controversy revolving around complaints about signal loss on the new gadget.

COMMENTARY:

ASHOK KUMAR, ANALYST WITH RODMAN AND RENSHAW:

"These were blowout numbers. The iPhone 4 units came in weaker than expected primarily due to the product launch, with supply constraints. But on all other measures, the company significantly exceeded guidance.

"If you put it in perspective, the original iPod took 7 quarters to ship a million units. With the initial iPhone, it took only 70 days to reach the 1 million unit rate.

"For iPad, it reached the one mln mark in under 30 days, and the iPhone 4 shipped 1.7 million units in the first three days.

"The iPhone 4 has been in a class by itself in terms of volume. Looking ahead with multiple carrier agreements, the story remains intact. The primary driver will be the iPhone.